Back To The Future – Revisiting 2011’s Predictions

Back To The Future – Revisiting 2011’s Predictions

Back to the Future – Revisiting 2011’s Predictions

future-predictions

Back in January 2011 we published an article that summarised predictions made by various research companies about the future of cloud computing. Three years on, we look back at some of the figures from that article and assess the accuracy of the predictions – has cloud computing grown faster or slower than expectations?

1. 2011 Prediction:  

By 2014 businesses in the United States will be spending more than $13 billion per year on cloud computing.

2014 Reality: 

Precise spending figures are difficult to locate, but the available data allows us to make good estimations – and the 2011 prediction appears low. The latest forecasts by research firm IDC show global spending on the cloud will exceed $100 Billion by the end of 2014, with North America accounting for 59% of new spending. North America also generates the most cloud traffic (469 exabytes annually), and Cisco now expects 2014 to be the first year where more work will be carried out in the cloud (51 percent) than in a traditional IT workspace.

Good Guess or Poor Prediction? Poor Prediction

2. 2011 Prediction: 

SaaS spending is expected to grow 112 percent annually from 2011 to 2014.

2014 Reality:

This appears more accurate than the first prediction. Gartner’s market analysis report on cloud services predicts that IaaS will have a compound annual growth rate of 41.3% between 2012 and 2016, comfortably making it the fastest growing area of public cloud computing.

Good Guess or Poor Prediction? Good Guess 

3. 2011 Prediction:

IaaS spending will approach $4 billion by 2014.

2014 Reality:

Direct figures for 2014 are not available, but Gartner used the same report to highlight that they believe spending on IaaS will surpass $72 billion by 2016 – making $4 billion in 2014 seem remarkably low.

Good Guess or Poor Prediction? Poor Prediction

4. 2011 Prediction: 

Cloud computing revenues will touch $16.7 billion by 2015.

2014 Reality:

This prediction appears accurate. The total cloud computing market hit $2.5 billion in revenue in Q3 of 2013, up 46% the same quarter of 2012. Amazon alone increased its revenues by 55 percent and is estimated to have made at least $3 billion from its cloud in 2013, while its competitor IBM made $1 billion revenue in Q3 alone (owing largely to its purchase of website hosting company SoftLayer in 2012). With the latest forecasts by 451 Research now projecting cloud computing revenues to be $20 billion by the end of 2016, the prediction of $16.7 billion in 2015 looks realistic.

Good Guess or Poor Prediction? Good Guess

Where do you think the cloud will be in another three years? Let us know in the comments below.

By Daniel Price

Follow Me!

Daniel Price

Daniel is a Manchester-born UK native who has abandoned cold and wet Northern Europe and currently lives on the Caribbean coast of Mexico. A former Financial Consultant, he now balances his time between writing articles for several industry-leading tech (CloudTweaks.com & MakeUseOf.com), sports, and travel sites and looking after his three dogs.
Follow Me!

2 Responses to Back To The Future – Revisiting 2011’s Predictions

    • Hi William. Perhaps you’re right, but no matter what figures are used the discrepancy between $4bn and $72bn in prediction #3 is rather profound. As stated, figures for #1 are not available, so I made my own deductions. I just felt that if such a high percentage of new spending and traffic is coming out of North America, $13 bn seemed low.

Comics

At CloudTweaks, we're plugged into the cloud, the internet of things and all that the web has to offer. From wearable technology, to mobile computing, cloud computing and big data, CloudTweaks is your source for updates and news on the most innovative technology.

Popular

Top Viral Impact

Cloud Infographic – Cyber Security And The New Frontier

Cloud Infographic – Cyber Security And The New Frontier

Cyber Security: The New Frontier The security environment of the 21st century is constantly evolving, and it’s difficult to predict where the next threats and dangers will come from. But one thing is clear: the ever-expanding frontier of digital space will continue to present firms and governments with security challenges. From politically-motivated Denial-of-Service attacks to…

Big Data Analytics Adoption

Big Data Analytics Adoption

Big Data Analytics Adoption Big Data is an emerging phenomenon. Nowadays, many organizations have adopted information technology (IT) and information systems (IS) in business to handle huge amounts of data and gain better insights into their business. Many scholars believe that Business Intelligence (BI), solutions with Analytics capabilities, offer benefits to companies to achieve competitive…

Cloud Infographic – The Internet Of Things In 2020

Cloud Infographic – The Internet Of Things In 2020

Cloud Infographic –  The Internet Of Things In 2020 The growing interest in the Internet of Things is amongst us and there is much discussion. Attached is an archived but still relevant infographic by Intel which has produced a memorizing snapshot at how the number of connected devices have exploded since the birth of the…

Cloud Infographic – Cloud Fast Facts

Cloud Infographic – Cloud Fast Facts

Cloud Infographic – Cloud Fast Facts It’s no secret that Cloud Computing is more than just a buzz term as that ship has sailed off a long time ago. More and more companies are adopting the uses and benefits of cloud computing while aggressively factoring cloud services spending into their budget. Included is an excellent…

Featured Sponsors

Salesforce Service Cloud: Air Traffic Control For Your Customer

Salesforce Service Cloud: Air Traffic Control For Your Customer

Salesforce Service Cloud One of the greatest benefits of the increasingly reliable and ubiquitous state of cloud technology is the removal of business silos and the consolidation of information flow, both in-house and on the road. This is of particular importance to the many different types of professionals whose work involves customer relationship management (CRM).…

Watching You Shop: Stores And Mannequins “Read” Their Customers And Respond

Watching You Shop: Stores And Mannequins “Read” Their Customers And Respond

Watching You Shop The mannequin in the store window stares blankly ahead as shoppers look at the clothes it is dressed in and contemplate a purchase. One shopper makes some comments. “It’s nice. I wonder if they have my size.” Another takes a few steps inside the store to see where these particular clothes might…

Sponsors

The Future Of Work: What Cloud Technology Has Allowed Us To Do Better

The Future Of Work: What Cloud Technology Has Allowed Us To Do Better

The Future of Work: What Cloud Technology Has Allowed Us to Do Better The cloud has made our working lives easier, with everything from virtually unlimited email storage to access-from-anywhere enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. It’s no wonder the 2013 cloud computing research IDG survey revealed at least 84 percent of the companies surveyed run at…

Placement Opportunities - Find Out!

Established in 2009, CloudTweaks is recognized as one of the leading influencers in cloud computing, big data and internet of things (IoT) information. Our goal is to continue to build our growing information portal, by providing the best in-depth articles, interviews, event listings, whitepapers, infographics and much more.

You can help continue to support our community by social sharing, sponsoring, partnering or contributing to this great educational resource.

Contact

CloudTweaks Media
Phone: 1 (212) 763-0021

Join Our Newsletter