Cloud Economics and Moore’s Law
Moore’s Law back in 1965 predicted silicon power would double every two years. But what its creator, Gordon E. Moore, couldn’t have predicted was the dramatic economies of scale the cloud would eventually bring to all of our lives. For one, it’s helped lead to a drop in price for essentials like computing power and storage by making them more accessible. But also, it’s enabled conveniences no one ever would have imagined four or so decades ago.
Today we’re able to use a mobile device with massive power and local storage to locate and download from virtually anywhere in the world an application for as little as 59 pence. Think for example of Shazam, which identifies songs you can’t quite discern after it listens for just a few seconds. Leveraging its cloud database, Shazam also lets you buy and download the song via your smartphone. All of this – the convenience, the low cost, the power on the local device – is driven by the cloud.
The Cloud has not only driven down costs, but it’s helped increased our satisfaction with – and expectations of – our Internet experience. It’s enabled mobility and delivered immense computing power to anyone, anywhere at any time. The cloud has also driven the success of many vendors and will continue to do so as developers deliver applications that are faster to market and reach a wider commercial audience at a lower cost of delivery.
We should expect to see more changes in the size and delivery methods of the technologies we use –where very small files, programs or devices connect to the cloud where all of the benefits are stored. Such client/cloud configurations are a boon for consumerisation as our appetites for an always-connected, “iWant” lifestyle increase.
In 10 years on iPhone 14 and iPad 11, will we see applications that are free and pay 1p per use perhaps? Or will we see others employing new models that yet again change the way we digest and pay for computing power and information?
More changes to the Cloud economics that we won’t see coming are inevitable. Perhaps an update to Moore’s Law will be formed to hypothesize that the number of applications running the in the cloud will double every two years; based on today’s adoption and consumption rates, however, we’re more likely to see this being every two months
By Ian Moyse